NOAA Revises 2026 Super El Niño Odds to 37%

2026-05-15

Probability Raised by 12 Points

On the 14th, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced a 37% chance of a super El Niño in the second half of 2026. That is up 12 points from 25% in April. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has also released a forecast indicating a possible occurrence.

El Niño is a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remain above normal, triggering global abnormal weather such as heavy rain, drought, and extreme heat. The very strong version is called a super El Niño, and only three have been recorded since observations began in 1950: 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16. On April 24, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said El Niño could occur as early as May to July, and NOAA estimated the chance of occurrence during that period at 82%. On May 12, Japan's Meteorological Agency also raised its estimate for occurrence by summer to 90%.

Spillover to Food Supply and Temperatures

Major weather agencies around the world are predicting an occurrence by this summer, but the key question is whether it will be strong enough to become a super El Niño. Professor Masahiro Watanabe of the Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute at the University of Tokyo notes that spring forecasts are highly uncertain, but says, "The risk is certainly there."

The impact often reaches food supply. El Niño directly hits production areas for major crops such as rice, wheat, and corn, and studies have confirmed yield impacts on at least one-quarter of the world's farmland. In particular, southern Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia are especially prone to reduced yields of corn, wheat, and rice, respectively. In 1997–98, it brought heavy rain to Central and South America, causing severe damage to the production of corn, coffee, cocoa, and bananas. In 2015–16, severe drought struck Australia, East Africa, and Southeast Asia, directly damaging wheat and rice production.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and others have reported that more than 60 million people, mainly in developing countries, faced severe food and water shortages and health damage. The European Commission's research arm, the Joint Research Centre (JRC), also cited the upcoming El Niño in April as a major agricultural concern, alongside rising energy and fertilizer prices. Gareth Redmond-King of the UK think tank Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit warns that if two negative factors — El Niño and Middle East tensions — coincide, they could threaten global food supplies.

Risk of Higher Temperatures in 2027

El Niño releases heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures from the year it occurs through the following year. During the 2023–24 El Niño, combined with global warming, the world’s annual average temperature set a record for two consecutive years. Professor Yoshihiro Tachibana of Mie University believes that after a super El Niño, average temperatures are unlikely to return quickly even if they rise temporarily. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at U.S. research group Berkeley Earth, points out that if a super El Niño continues from the second half of 2026, 2027 could see the world’s average temperature set a new record.

Japan has traditionally been said to be prone to cooler summers when El Niño occurs. However, Tachibana explains that if a super El Niño develops, sea surface temperatures off the Philippines — which help bring cooler summers — would also rise, potentially bringing extreme heat to Japan.

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