As population decline spreads, room for cooperation widens in aviation and convenience stores

2026-08-16

Japan's population fell below 120 million in January for the first time in 42 years. As the population decline deepens, the industrial structure is moving from cutthroat competition toward a phase in which companies are seeking cooperation.

Aviation shifts from competition to cooperation

All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL), long at odds after years of fierce competition, have started moving toward cooperation as domestic routes become less profitable. As operating conditions worsen due to rising costs, including fuel expenses, the transport ministry drew up measures in May with the Fair Trade Commission, including allowing companies to adjust schedules.

On regional routes, the two carriers often fly at similar times, and there were skeptical views about cooperation. Even so, an executive who took part in a ministry expert panel said the industry would respond 'with a sense of speed', and both airlines are pressing ahead with efforts to ease their difficulties.

Convenience stores pushed toward standardization

Convenience stores are also seeing closer industry coordination as they face population decline and aging. During the July Kumamoto earthquakes, they supplied rice balls and heatstroke-prevention products and functioned as infrastructure supporting disaster-hit areas, even as the number of stores that may struggle to survive nationwide is increasing.

At Seven & i Holdings, the industry leader, and FamilyMart, the No. 2 chain, the standardization of ATM operations began in June. Following Itochu Corp.'s investment last year in Seven Bank, FamilyMart's parent, FamilyMart stores began switching their ATMs to Seven Bank machines.

A Seven Bank executive said the company wants to accelerate a plan to install 16,000 units over four years. Some efficiency gains are expected, including through more efficient cash transport.

From competition to coexistence

The next focus is how to raise productivity in supply chains for goods, including food. With driver shortages threatening to disrupt logistics, the impact would be significant if companies can work together.

Convenience stores are not an industry regulated by the state, but in a shrinking market, managers are being asked to take a broad view. Itochu Corp. Chairman and CEO Masahiro Okafuji said of the late Toshifumi Suzuki, Seven & i's honorary adviser who died in May, that he 'had historically led the evolution of the convenience store business', adding that he had long maintained contact with and respect for him.

Okafuji appears to be suggesting that the era of competing across the board on the assumption of ever-rising growth is over. Domestic store numbers have stagnated in the 50,000 range, and the view is that joining forces behind the scenes, including in logistics, could lead to a new growth model.

Itochu has had close ties since the launch of Seven-Eleven Japan, and Itochu Food Sales is also one of the company's main wholesalers. It is entirely possible for the chains to compete on each store's individuality while cooperating on their management foundations.

What matters is that the benefits are not limited to the companies themselves but also extend to users. To prevent convenience stores from disappearing from local communities, profitability at franchise chain (FC) outlets must also be improved. In a shrinking Japan, competition that allows coexistence and the sharing of profits is being demanded.

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