New tariffs dim refund hopes, forcing firms to review plans again

2026-08-12

The U.S. administration has imposed new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on 60 countries and regions, replacing the reciprocal tariffs that were struck down. The package includes some relief measures, but companies that had counted on tariff refunds or lower costs are being forced to revisit their business plans.

New tariffs raise cost concerns

'Uncertainty around tariffs will remain going forward.' Harley-Davidson Chief Executive Officer Jochen Zeitz said this at the company's earnings briefing for the April-June 2026 quarter, signaling that the business outlook remains unclear even under the new tariffs.

The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America also said additional trade measures could push up costs for both companies and consumers. Before the tariffs took effect, many U.S. companies had stressed the refund effect of the now-invalid reciprocal tariffs, but for some consumer goods companies the tariff burden will rise again, damping expectations.

Even with broader exclusions, burdens remain

The Yale Budget Lab estimated on July 24 that the average statutory tariff rate at the end of 2026, including the new tariffs, would be 11.8%. When the reciprocal tariffs were in force in December 2025, the rate was in the mid-14% range, and after the February ruling invalidating them it fell to the 7% range.

Even so, while the new tariffs include several relief measures such as broader exemptions, Atsushi Amemiya of Nomura Securities America expects the average effective tariff rate to rise to 8% from 7% at the end of July. In a survey by We Pay The Tariffs, a U.S. small-business coalition, of 241 small businesses in the United States, 53% said they would use tariff refunds to 'pay down debt.' If additional costs arise before refunds are received, worsening finances will be hard to avoid.

In the group's report, 85% said they had 'cut profit margins' in response to tariff increases, while 83% said they had 'raised selling prices.' The Yale Budget Lab estimated the annual tariff burden on U.S. households at 1,100 dollars, or about 175,000 yen, under the new tariffs, suggesting that the pressure on consumers will continue.

Issue centers on Section 301 of the Trade Act

One reason corporate optimism is fading is that the new tariffs may be harder to block than previous duties. Unlike the reciprocal tariffs, which were imposed using emergency powers, the new tariffs are based on Section 301 of the Trade Act, which allows restrictions on unfair trade practices.

The Trump administration says the lack of sufficient action by countries against forced labor creates unfair competition and distorts markets, and it has positioned the tariffs as a countermeasure. Luis Abad, who handles tax policy advisory work at KPMG U.S., said Section 301 expressly sets out the authority, and challenges may have to be fought on a measure-by-measure basis. The hurdle for seeking withdrawal or changes through litigation is seen as higher than before.

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