CFTC data show speculators’ yen shorts plunge on intervention
2026-08-08
Non-commercial yen shorts narrow to 45,473 contracts
According to the Chicago currency futures position report for Aug. 4 released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on the 7th, non-commercial yen positions against the dollar, including those held by hedge funds and other speculators, stood at a net short 45,473 contracts. Following yen-buying foreign exchange intervention by the government and the Bank of Japan, the short position narrowed by 70% in a week.
More than 110,000 contracts cut from before intervention
The yen short position shrank by 117,939 contracts from 163,412 contracts on July 28, before the intervention, a decline of 72%. The weekly move was the largest since comparable weekly data became available in October 1992.
Record unwinding, but yen strength still limited
The CFTC's non-commercial category includes leveraged funds and asset managers. The net position, calculated by subtracting short positions from long positions, is closely watched as an indicator of speculators' market view.
The short position as of July 28 was at a level comparable to 2007 and 2024, when yen carry trades were widespread. The buildup in yen short positions is often seen as 'magma for a stronger yen' that can lay the ground for a sharp rise in the currency, and in 2007 and 2024, the yen later strengthened rapidly.
The government and the Bank of Japan stepped into the market from July 30 with massive yen-buying, dollar-selling intervention. The United States also provided support on the side through yen-buying, euro-selling intervention. The yen briefly surged to the low 155 per dollar range, but selling pressure remained strong, and trading on Aug. 7 ended in the 157 per dollar range.
While speculative yen shorts were unwound at a record pace, the yen's advance was still limited. It is possible that real demand for dollars and yen selling from Japanese importers and others continued.
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