警戒強まる中で円買い介入継続、市場は155円を意識

2026-08-02

Speculation of early-morning intervention

As Japanese and U.S. monetary authorities align in efforts to stem the yen's decline, foreign exchange markets are focused on whether yen-buying intervention will be carried out for a third consecutive trading day on Monday the 3rd. Many market participants expect a battle around 155 yen to the dollar, while European and U.S. traders are also heightening their vigilance from early Monday morning Tokyo time.

Foreign exchange trading at the start of the week begins shortly before 5 a.m. Japan time in Wellington, New Zealand, and elsewhere. It is Sunday evening in London and Sunday afternoon in New York, and a notable number of traders are standing by despite the holiday. Participation by Tokyo traders increases from around 7 a.m. Japan time, and because prices can move easily even on small transactions during the thinly traded early morning, speculation of an 'early-morning intervention' is growing.

Market bets focused on 155 yen

One reason for heightened caution ahead of Monday is the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) classification of exchange-rate regimes. Because consecutive interventions within three trading days are counted as one episode, some in the market believe authorities may seek to make additional interventions while they can still be treated as a single episode, aiming to capture as wide a price range as possible.

The yen ended the previous week in the mid-157 range per dollar, above the 200-day moving average, regarded as a medium- to long-term guide, at 158 yen. Speculators who have built up short-yen, long-dollar positions may move to close them at the risk of losses, and authorities are believed to have targeted that pressure.

In yen-buying interventions by the government and the Bank of Japan believed to have been carried out in the early morning and afternoon of July 31 U.S. Eastern time, the yen's rise initially stopped around 158 yen. However, the trend changed shortly after 4 p.m. that day. According to several market participants, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, acting on behalf of the U.S. Treasury, sold euros and bought yen, while the government and the BOJ again sold dollars and bought yen. As a result, the yen rose to the low-157 range.

Views are spreading that the next focus will be 155 yen. One market participant described 155 yen as 'a level that was not breached during the previous intervention over Golden Week, and the minimum line to aim for even in this all-out effort.' The fact that importers' assumed exchange rates are said to be concentrated around 155 to 160 yen is also believed to be one reason the government and the BOJ are focused on 155 yen.

Actual-demand dollar buying and resistance to further gains

If the yen strengthens further, dollar buying by importers and other actual-demand players could expand, potentially becoming a barrier to the yen's rise. A hedge fund manager said there are 'several thousand' dollar-buying orders from Japanese companies alone, with each order referring to $1 million.

In a memo issued on the evening of July 31, Goldman Sachs of the United States said that despite the alignment of Japanese and U.S. authorities, 'the market reaction was on the small side compared with the historical average.' Some also believe that if authorities ease their intervention, the yen's rebound will quickly lose momentum.

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