OPEC Plus producers to discuss a sixth straight output hike for September
2026-08-02
OPEC Plus producer countries will hold a monthly meeting on the 2nd to discuss September production policy. With crude prices rising again, if they decide on an output increase on the same scale as in August, the voluntary cuts introduced in 2023 are expected to end.
Seven countries to hold online talks
Seven countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia, will hold the talks online. They have raised output quotas for five straight months so far, and are also coordinating toward an increase of 188,000 barrels a day in line with August. The seven countries' combined production quota will be around 31 million barrels a day.
Voluntary cuts continue to be scaled back
In May 2023, the seven countries began voluntary cuts of 1.65 million barrels a day, equivalent to 1% to 2% of global demand, in order to tighten supply and push up crude prices. They have moved to unwind the cuts in 2025, and since the military clash between the United States and Iran at the end of February, they have raised output by a cumulative 1 million barrels a day or so.
Supply recovery remains sluggish
However, with the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz continuing, actual production has been slow to recover. The seven countries' combined output in June was 22.9 million barrels a day, more than 6.3 million barrels below the level in February before the clash. It was also about 7.5 million barrels below their production quotas. Concerns are also mounting over oil shipping on the Red Sea side, an alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz.
Focus on remaining coordinated cuts
The remaining cuts under OPEC Plus are the coordinated reductions for all participants that began in 2022, totaling about 2 million barrels a day. The current deadline is the end of 2026, and the group is expected to discuss its response toward year-end. Iraq and others are seeking a much larger increase in production quotas.
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