Scale of 30th yen-buying intervention seen in BOJ account balances

2026-07-31

Market speculation is growing that the yen-buying foreign exchange intervention carried out by the government and the Bank of Japan on the 30th was in the range of 6 trillion yen to 7 trillion yen. The estimate was based on the BOJ's forecast for current account balances for August 3, released on the 31st.

Estimating the intervention amount

In yen-buying intervention, the BOJ buys yen from the market, shifting funds to the national treasury and reducing current account balances at private financial institutions held at the BOJ. Because foreign exchange settlement takes place two business days later, the impact of the intervention on the 30th will be reflected in balances on August 3.

Tankan companies that broker interbank transactions had forecast that current account balances would fall by 950 billion yen to 1.73 trillion yen due to fiscal and other factors if there had been no intervention. Based on the difference from the BOJ's forecast of 8.2 trillion yen, the intervention amount is seen at roughly 6 trillion yen to 7 trillion yen.

Market caution

The actual intervention amount will be released by the Ministry of Finance on August 28 as results from the 30th through August 26. Reporting from market participants also showed that, in addition to the government and the BOJ moving to buy yen on the 30th, U.S. currency authorities carried out a 'rate check', a step taken before intervention.

The yen, which was trading around 163 per dollar in the evening of the 30th, then surged to the 157-yen range in nighttime trading. According to the Ministry of Finance, the total intervention amount from April 28 to May 27 reached a record 11.7349 trillion yen in a period of yen weakness. There is still a gap from the latest estimate, and caution over additional intervention is rising again in the market.

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