Yen near 39-1/2-year lows, oil tests higher on Middle East woes

2026-07-12

Yen near 39-1/2-year lows, oil tests higher on Middle East woes

Yen seen extending declines

Japanese stocks are likely to trade with a firm tone in the week of July 13-17. Some market players say money is flowing back into AI-related shares, which had been less prominent through the previous week, and lifting the broader market. With earnings from major global semiconductor companies due in the middle of the week, stronger results could add momentum to the rally.

Lingering view of a weaker yen

The yen is expected to remain on a downtrend against the dollar. Selling pressure on the yen is likely to build on expectations of US rate hikes, with the currency forecast to move in the 160 yen per dollar range.

China GDP likely to fall below 5%

China's National Bureau of Statistics will release gross domestic product data for April-June on the 15th. The real year-on-year growth rate, excluding price changes, is expected to fall below 5%. Weak consumption, especially of durable goods, due to lackluster domestic demand, along with deteriorating Middle East conditions, has also kept corporate investment sluggish.

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