CSIS Says Russia, Ukraine Casualties Top 2 Million in War

2026-07-02

CSIS report estimates

In a report published on the 1st, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated that combined casualties, including missing persons, among Russian and Ukrainian forces from February 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, through June 2026 exceeded 2 million at most. The report said Russia is 'struggling'.

Breakdown of Russian and Ukrainian forces

Russian casualties were about 1.4 million, of which about 400,000 to 450,000 were battle deaths. Ukrainian casualties were about 525,000 to 625,000, with battle deaths of about 125,000 to 150,000.

The report said that for Russia, losing military initiative has made the burden heavier, with rising casualties and shrinking areas under control. Domestically, it noted that higher prices, tax increases and sweeping internet restrictions are continuing, adding that '2026 has been a tough year for many Russians'.

Monthly casualties may exceed new recruits

Monthly Russian casualties in 2026 reached about 30,000 to 34,000 and are likely to exceed the roughly 27,000 soldiers newly recruited each month, it said. As background, it cited intensified Ukrainian drone attacks using artificial intelligence (AI). In the 'kill zone' 20 to 40 kilometers from the front line, the casualty rate among Russian soldiers was said to be 'extremely high'.

It also said Russian military deaths in the invasion of Ukraine have exceeded postwar US military deaths by more than four times, calling the figure 'astonishing'. It added that Russian forces lost about 400 square kilometers of controlled territory in April and May 2026, saying the Russian economy is in dire straits and urging the United States and Europe to tighten economic sanctions on Russia to help bring about a ceasefire.

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