Oil falls on US-Iran deal hopes; US stocks and bonds rise
2026-06-15
Risk appetite strengthened in US financial markets on the 15th after reports that the United States and Iran had agreed to exchange a memorandum aimed at ending hostilities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average at one point rose more than 700 points, briefly hitting a record high.
Buying in oil and selling in bonds
US President Donald Trump said on his social media account on the 14th that he had agreed with Iran to end hostilities. He said a formal agreement would be signed on the 19th and that the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy shipping route, would be opened.
In response, crude prices tumbled. The front-month WTI (West Texas Intermediate), the international benchmark, fell more than 6% from the previous weekend and briefly dropped below $80 a barrel. It was the lowest level in about three months since March 10.
As inflation concerns eased, US bond yields declined across maturities. The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for long-term interest rates, fell to the 4.4% range and at one point hit its lowest level in a month.
Stocks rise broadly
In equities, investors' risk appetite strengthened and the Dow rose for a third straight session. The S&P 500 gained 2%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed as much as 3%.
The VIX, which measures expected volatility in US stocks, plunged to the 16 level, well below 20, a threshold seen as signaling heightened caution. Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO for the Americas and head of global equities at UBS, said if the agreement holds, investors will turn more to resilient economic growth and corporate earnings, making it a supportive factor for global equity markets.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose 5% on the 15th and at one point moved above its record high set on the 3rd for the first time in about two weeks. Semiconductor-related shares have led the US market since April on demand for artificial intelligence (AI), but in June they became more volatile amid concerns about overheating. From their most recent low on the 10th, they have risen 16%, underscoring the recovery trend.
Matthew Marie of US-based Miller Tabak said continued gains in semiconductor shares would be a bullish signal for the broader market. Among individual stocks, Micron Technology at one point rose 10%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained 9% and Nvidia climbed 4%.
SpaceX IPO also lends support
Market sentiment was also supported by a strong start for SpaceX shares after the company carried out the largest initial public offering (IPO) by fundraising size in history on the 12th. Following a 19% gain from the offer price on the first day, the shares were bought up as much as 17% higher on the 15th.
Elon Musk, who leads the company, posted on X, formerly Twitter, on the 14th that SpaceX revenue could reach about $1 trillion in 2030. The bullish outlook, which would represent a sharp increase from revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025, was seen as a buying catalyst.
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