SpaceX IPO signals sweeping space and AI ambitions

2026-06-06

Offer price set at $135

SpaceX will conduct its initial public offering (IPO) on June 12. The company expects full-year 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, but it is also forecast to post a final loss. Its market value is expected to reach about $1.77 trillion, making it the largest in U.S. history. The future of space development and artificial intelligence (AI) envisioned by Elon Musk is itself the benchmark for investors.

SpaceX on the 3rd set the offer price at $135 a share ahead of its roadshow. While companies typically set pricing after gauging demand from institutional investors, this time investors are being asked whether they will assign a huge premium to Musk's vision.

Mars settlement and a lunar hub

In the S-1 filing, the equivalent of a prospectus disclosed on May 20, the company outlined its mission and business strategy. At the core is concern that human civilization may remain confined to Earth. As its ultimate goal, SpaceX sets out 'Kardashev Scale 2,' a concept proposed by Nikolai Kardashev.

This refers to a stage at which humanity can make near-complete use of the sun's energy. The company believes progress in space-based solar power and space data centers would bring it closer to that point. Musk has repeatedly said humanity cannot survive unless civilization expands to multiple planets beyond Earth.

The envisioned destination is Mars. SpaceX aims to build a city that can house 1 million people on Mars, and the prospectus also says this scale is a condition for Musk to receive a reward of 1 billion shares as an executive. The plan is to send a forward team aboard Starship, the world's largest rocket, carrying Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus, then establish a settlement equipped with solar power generation and communications facilities.

As a precursor, the company also plans to develop the Moon as a relay base. Water on the lunar surface would be used for fuel, while sandy regolith would be used as building material. The company plans to use a lunar mass driver, which launches payloads by magnetic acceleration, to send fuel and satellites into orbit at low cost.

Combining AI and space infrastructure

SpaceX also pointed to new businesses built on space infrastructure. Options include high-speed transport linking major cities on Earth in 30 minutes, space travel, manufacturing that uses microgravity, and asteroid resource extraction.

But more than its space business, AI sits at the center of its growth strategy. Musk brought his xAI under the group in February 2026, putting in place a structure to compete with OpenAI and Google. SpaceX is aiming for growth by combining space and AI.

Symbolic of that is the space data center plan. The company would launch satellites carrying AI servers into Earth orbit and perform computing in space. It plans to begin deploying dedicated satellites as early as 2028 and ultimately cover the Earth with large numbers of satellites for AI, and it has already filed with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for a launch plan of as many as 1 million units.

Musk believes space, where sunlight can be used continuously, has an advantage in power supply. While securing electricity is a constraint for data centers on Earth, he says solar energy can be used free of charge in space. Ultimately, the company envisions deploying 1 terawatt of annual AI computing capacity in space. It also has plans to mine resources on the Moon and manufacture satellites and solar panels.

Mass semiconductor production and vertical integration

SpaceX is also moving into mass production of semiconductors for AI. In March, Musk unveiled the 'Terafab' concept as a joint venture between SpaceX and Tesla. The aim is to manufacture in-house the semiconductors needed for 1 terawatt-scale annual AI computing, helping offset supply shortages at major contract manufacturers such as TSMC and Samsung Electronics.

Believing that companies controlling computing resources and data will win the AI race, Musk is pushing vertical integration to the limit. Starting with the 2022 acquisition of X, he has advanced development of the foundation model Grok at xAI, and in 2025 had xAI acquire X to absorb massive amounts of data. The two companies are now under SpaceX.

Even so, Grok's usage remains limited. According to U.S. research firm Sensor Tower, app users in April totaled 51 million, only about 5% of ChatGPT's level. Musk appears ready to mount a comeback by combining information gathered on X with the computing infrastructure in space.

The expansion of the Musk empire

SpaceX's listing could also become a mechanism for lifting multiple businesses Musk controls at once. X, which he bought for $44 billion in 2022, has underperformed, and when it was combined with xAI the two companies were valued at $250 billion in total. Investors in X and xAI have gained SpaceX shares through stock swaps, keeping IPO returns in focus.

Musk not only controls SpaceX but also Tesla, Neuralink and The Boring Company. The combined value of his related companies has topped $3 trillion, growing to a scale comparable with Microsoft. Speculation has also emerged about a combination of SpaceX and Tesla after the listing.

Wealth concentration and governance risks

If the IPO succeeds, Musk's wealth will become even more concentrated. According to Forbes, his net worth stood at about $826 billion as of June 2. If his SpaceX shares rise after the listing, his assets could reach $1 trillion.

Concerns remain over the control structure. Through the issuance of multiple classes of shares, Musk is expected to retain 80% of the voting rights even after the listing. The company accounts for 80% of rocket launches in Western countries, and Starlink has a dominant presence in satellite communications. As use in Ukraine has shown, the company's infrastructure is also directly tied to national security.

If SpaceX deepens its dominance of the space market and integrates its AI businesses, the risk of the world being swayed by Musk's intentions will grow further. The blockbuster IPO reflects the dynamism of American capitalism, while also casting a shadow of excessive concentration of power.

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