SBG shares keep rising, closing gap with Toyota to just over 2 trillion yen

2026-05-26

SoftBank Group rises on AI hopes

SoftBank Group (SBG, 9984) shares have been climbing. Buying has gathered on speculation that its investee OpenAI in the United States may pursue an initial public offering (IPO), lifting the stock to a series of record highs. Its market capitalisation has narrowed the gap with top-ranked Toyota Motor (7203) to just over 2 trillion yen.

In Tokyo trading on the 26th, SBG shares briefly rose 930 yen, or 13.15%, from the previous day to 8,000 yen. That marked a fresh all-time high on a split-adjusted basis for a second straight day. Since speculation about an OpenAI listing emerged on the 21st, the shares have climbed for four consecutive trading days, gaining 58%.

OpenAI listing speculation provides support

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that OpenAI is preparing to file for an IPO. The report said the company is aiming for a listing as early as September. The latest corporate valuation was put at 852 billion dollars, or about 135 trillion yen, while some in the market see it at 1 trillion dollars. Expectations that SBG's unrealised gains on the company it backs will expand are drawing buying into SBG shares.

Also providing support is the rise in shares of UK chip designer Arm Holdings, in which SBG owns 90%. The stock has risen for five straight days through the 22nd, lifting its level by nearly 50% over that period. The background is comments by the management of U.S. chip giant Nvidia at its earnings release on the 20th, which gave a bullish outlook for its Vera CPU. Janardhan Menon of Jefferies said Arm's AGI CPU, which the company is developing, also is expected to see strong demand.

Arm gains also lift NAV

The rise in Arm shares is boosting SBG's net asset value (NAV), calculated by subtracting net interest-bearing debt from the value of its holdings. As NAV expands, the level at which investors view SBG shares as expensive is also moving higher. In a report dated the 25th, Sato Kikuchi, senior analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities, raised SBG's target share price to 8,500 yen from 5,200 yen, citing the rally in Arm shares.

Some market estimates put SBG's NAV at 60 trillion yen. Its market capitalisation stood at about 45.42 trillion yen, including treasury shares, as of 1 p.m. on the 26th, still below that level. During a rally toward October last year, its market capitalisation at times matched NAV, but the stock later fell on profit-taking. If NAV remains a benchmark for investors, some see room for further upside.

Some see 10,000 yen in sight

Ryoshige Kamata, an analyst at Tachibana Securities, said SBG shares would not be out of the question even if they were to aim for 10,000 yen, given the rise in Arm shares and speculation about an OpenAI IPO. He also said money that had been concentrated in AI-related stocks in the United States is flowing to SBG in Asia as a diversification destination, adding that the bullish outlook is strengthening.

Toyota's market capitalisation was about 47.558 trillion yen as of 1 p.m. on the 26th. The gap, which was about 28 trillion yen at the end of last year, has narrowed to around 2.1 trillion yen. If the two overtake each other, it would be the first time since March 2000, during the IT bubble. Excluding treasury shares, SBG has already overtaken Toyota. Concerns are also growing that turmoil in the Middle East could affect automobile production and parts supply chains, and Toyota shares are down 10% so far this year, moving in contrast to SBG.

However, if AI and chip stocks now in favour were to unwind, SBG would inevitably face selling pressure as well. OpenAI is facing competition from Anthropic and others in the U.S., and it is difficult to see whether it can deliver the growth the market expects. With so many bullish factors in play, stock-price swings could become even larger.

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